Anyone who loves to eat has to worry about the state of farm products and that means they need to be concerned about climate change because recent studies suggest that where plants grow is shifting, as they seek cooler or wetter conditions.
A new study from a University of California, Berkeley ecologist working with researchers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service found that over the past century, vegetation has gradually moved toward the poles and up mountain slopes, to areas with cooler temperatures, and towards the equator, where rainfall is greater.
Meanwhile depending on whether or not we can control greenhouse gas emissions, between 1/10 and 1/2 of the Earth will continue to see climate-related vegetation shifts.
The results are based on an overview of hundreds of field studies and a spatial analysis of what we have witnessed over the past century and can expect over the next 100 years.
The researchers found 15 cases where there was a complete biome shift since the 18th century meaning that an entire suite of plants moved. In each case the researchers were able to attribute the shift to changes in temperature and precipitation.
The researchers calculated that over the 20th century, mean temperatures increased over 76% of the earth’s landmasses, with the greatest warming in the subarctic. The big biome shifts occurred where either temperature or precipitation changed by one-half to two standard deviations from 20th century mean values.
What Does That Mean?
Examples of biome shifts that actually occurred were
- woodlands giving way to grasslands in the African Sahel, and
- shrublands encroaching onto tundra in the Arctic.
As trees and shrubs in the Sahel died off, there was less and less wood for housing and cooking. The damage to Arctic tundra reduced habitat for caribou and other wildlife. Globally, we are seeing the disruption of many ecosystems which affects everything from the habitats of endangered species to human water supplies. In all, at least 1 billion people live in areas that are could be affected by vegetation shifts. That’s 1 in 7 people who may find that food, water, or other plant based supplies are hard to come by if we don’t act.